Briefly revisiting the telcom seasonal trade statistics and the seasonal upswing in most of these stocks from mid November 2010 to December 31 2010, shows hits and misses.
Performance was overall positive during this time frame. For some like JDSU and LEAP very good. A few are continuing this trend presently, but others have continued only to disappoint like MOT and TLAB.
Comparing the numbers from the last sampling of performance on December 10, 2010 (chart) some stocks took a step backward but are presently trading up, others recovered only to fall further.
A quick recap of the stocks in their present ranges:
JDSU was the over performer in the group from the beginning and has traded up 95% presently. This stock in particular has a good Elliott Wave structure right now with the 28.00 range as a near term target if momentum continues.
LEAP has traded up 40% presently. This stock also has had relatively good Elliott Wave structure, but could pull back past its 200 day moving average before any uptrend continues.
MOT and TLAB both performed well in the sample period and continued to mark gains in the mid to upper teens in the first few days of January. However, holding these two stocks past this time frame would have left investors upset if profits were not protected.
Worse case scenario is a 1/7 stock split in MOT equaling a 40% decline and loss of shares. For TLAB, a 38% decline from the January highs, about 23% lower from the initial buy in November 2010.
PCS, RIMM and SONS are averaging 20% gains from November 2010 to the present trading highs despite lagging or trading flat initially.
All of these stocks, and many other ones, should now be considered to be trading outside of their seasonal ranges. That is that new analysis will be needed aside from the previously observed seasonal trends to determine the price motion of these stocks from here. The seasonal trade is over.