UGL Internal Waves

I’m going to go ahead and update the bullish wave sequence that was previously outlined if the flat correction held.

UGL did not retest its actual 382 retracement a second time, but did test its projected flat correction twice at around the 61.97 level.

If a breakout is beginning, this completed flat correction scenario is marked up in the chart below.

ugl_04_05_11_elliot_wave5.png

The previous chart, showed room to the upside to 92.52. This price target is used in the following internal wave projections shown below using the flat correction low. The shaded area shows where price motion may be presently.

ugl_04_05_11_elliot_calc_wave5.png

An additional chart shows the resolution within those waves which may be apparent at smaller time frames

It is worth noting that the price history of UGL is very short. These projections have been relatively accurate in the past, but have become less precise in the latest consolidation presently.

A few things to consider from the past.
This prior price chart below shows that the parent wave 3 macd still has not been breached by the present price motion, usually the sign of a wave 5 forming.

UGL elliott wave ugl_01_07_11_internal_wave5.png

This means that the strongest moves in ULG may be in the past.

Although the weekly shows a larger macd wave, it is not a sharp wave 3 as once thought. It is still negligible, or in the early stages, if this is the start of a much larger move at the larger time frames.

Visually, the macd weekly from November 2010 analysis showed a clear picture that a larger wave 3 may form. The chart from November below.

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Now look at the same weekly chart today which illustrates the marginal momentum to the upside. Previously mentioned as potential of a larger wave 3 beginning, it could now be divergence of wave 5.

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By SSTtrader | April 5, 2011 | Trading Concepts | 1 Comment |

  • UGL hit the price targets for the wave 5 analysis above first week of August 2011.

    Although UGL did break slightly below the flat correction support levels anticipated, it did not close below these levels on a weekly basis and could be said did not form a triangle correction as an alternative before heading higher.

    UGL also met larger term price target of 96.40 on 8/4/11 which was pointed out in prior post links above that outlined some scenario for larger trend targets.

    Overall MACD seems to be confirming the wave count anticipated. 

    However, this latest move has created a marginally higher high in MACD on the daily time frame relative to the wave 3 in the above chart.

    This could be attributed to the formation of the larger monthly time frames push higher. 

    The weekly time frame still shows divergence to these targets and suggests a wave 5 is forming.

    The volatile nature of the push higher to this target price could be reason for the marginal break in divergence of wave 3 and 5 internal at the daily time frame of the parent weekly and montly wave 3 target.

    Follow up on prior analysis using the UGL meta tag link above for the subsequent prior post links that outline these targets.

    No position in UGL.

    Time will tell if the wave analysis is accurate to a possible turning point and wave 4 correction or wave 2 correction.

    The chart below outlines the potential wave sequence to this point, reaching targets. As well, it projects the internal 5 waves of 5 using actual price magnitude of wave 1 internal of wave 5. 

    104.23 possible target using this method of calculations.

    8/7/11