Trading Smith & Wesson

SWHC is on the watch list for price targets 4.32 and 4.83, and still is on target for these prices after todays sell off. Time frame has shown its hand however.

The 4.20 price high on 12/6/10, just after the previous price projections, was a completed wave 5 from the 3.53 low. The projected wave 5 target, using the actual prices, was miscalculated by using 3.75 instead of 3.74 as wave 1 peak. The projection should have been for 4.29, which fell short anyhow.

Although, using the 4.20 price target with the low of 3.53 as a completed wave1, SWHC did not trade out of sorts. Other than its lack of volatility, by gapping lower towards its target ABC correction price projection of 3.82, SWHC has not broken any rules yet trading to 3.85 at open then to a low of 3.78.

If the time frame is moved up, so that the 4.20 high is a wave 3 high, the 3.78 price low is an exact match to a triangle wave 4 correction of this magnitude.

SWHC has so far traded higher after reaching this low, and if it trades within this triangle could be headed to 4.05. SWHC traded to a high of 4.01 after hours. This price target would be the B wave of the triangle.

The wave C target is 3.89, this would be a good price to enter a trade with a stop below the 3.78 level for short term traders. If SWHC successfully holds this low and trades within a range of 4.00, it should continue to trade to upside targets.

Wave 1 of wave 5, at this larger time frame, would be 4.12, wave 3 would be 4.35 and wave 5 is projected at 4.61. These prices are projected using the actual prices of SWHC from price zero 3.53 to 4.20 as a wave 3.

Also worth mentioning is that the internal wave structure of the wave 3 target at 4.32 mentioned in the previous post, using 3.53 to 3.63 magnitude, has not been violated by this correction. A projected parent wave 2 using this magnitude would calculate to support at 3.66 projected, 3.69 actual. As well, the internal wave 2 of wave 3, projected, using this time frame, shows support at 3.73, 5 cents below the low today.

swhc_12_09_10_elliott_wave_daily.png

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