I’ve been creating a small position in SCO- short oil. My negative bias is a result of the thoughts below yet the technical set up for the charts is choppy and at the present time probably more bullish than bearish. I feel what oil has been doing is taking fear out of the market. If ever possible now could be the time.
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Thoughts On Oil
“Grandpa” Likes Gold And Hates The Dollar
Doug Kass wrote about how he is long GLD at yesterdays lows. He’s not always been bullish on gold, has debated with Schiff on gold as religion in the past and is making a well thought case that it may be time to ease back in. So far this morning he’s made a nice call as gold is higher. However, there is a new sect of this religion and I will rant on my order of it.
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Emotional Gold
Usually when I write something with much emotion attached to it I call a top or a bottom, but I can’t resist to document further this moment as I too have found myself getting excited these last couple days with gold- the trend is lower.
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Cyprus Noise
Inspired by Phil Pearlman’s call to action Im going to try and share my thoughts on the overnight Cyprus event.
First off, Sunday was a day of sluggish thoughts about the week to come as I had a great St Paddy’s day weekend here with friends and family. Watching the market the week prior I thought it was showing signs of struggling with this years relentless move higher. Anyone ever struggled with relentless before? Seems natural, but has that stopped you? I was prepared for continued consolidation, another fearful moment or perhaps some reversion.
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Jan/Feb 2012 Stream Look-back
I’m starting to hear more and more people calling for tops, everyone is looking for the next big pattern to create a signal- myself included. There is always a need for awareness and familiarity of ones surroundings.
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January 2013 Chart Thoughts
I’m going to run through a random bunch of charts that I’ve had up recently…good or bad.
I normally like to update my Stocktwits stream if levels differ from those others posted or when I see something actionable, and will continue to do so, but in this instance I just wanted to create a quick library of some charts and thoughts in one spot on the blog to reference in the future.
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Speculating On A Rally Or A Recovery
Today was a big day for the markets. The transports continued to show strength and broke key price levels higher. In some minds this will now bolster the highs that we are making into the end of the year and possibly eliminate theories for more serious corrections to come based on a failing Fed effect and tax increases.
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HL Showing Support and Resistance
Ive talked about the price history of HL many times in the past with lofty monthly price targets based on Elliott Wave counts going way way back. The here and now on the matter of intermediate price direction may soon be upon us.
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The Path Higher in GLD is Heavy
I just want to post some chart comments on GLD. Its hard to not let our thoughts get away from us when we look for major turning points, but there have been a few out there much smarter than me with macro viewpoints bearish on gold lately. I love hearing some of the possible scenario fit into my thoughts and so this is an exercise of those thoughts. I’ve said dumber things before and yet nothing in quite a while…
ES_F Indicators Review
I put together an OR (opening range) chart last night while I was reviewing the ES_F price action. The OR can sometimes be a short lived “read” and other times it can mark the start of something bigger. I believe waiting for the OR to develop is an important part of creating my trading thesis currently relative to timing a trade.
I haven’t posted a lot lately, but have been tweeting a fair amount about $GC_F and the $ES. Im not looking to make any calls here just collect some of the thoughts shared and bring myself up to date in recorded fashion.
ES_F Midday Thoughts 05/08/12
Monday the ES_F rallied from overnight lows of 1342.50 to 1375.25 in late afternoon, successfully filling the gap from Fridays close at 13.62.50.
The price action reminded me of the ISM release day when buyers were keeping the price action tight and vertical. The 1min charts from this prior post explain how remaining patient under such circumstances lead to an easily revealed turn (hindsight).
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ES_F Midday Thoughts
I had a slight bias long this morning after the open bounced off the overnight lows. The opening range was lost in a big way however and took my buy at 94.5 past its stop no questions asked. (more…)
ES_F Fibonacci EMAs ISM Data Release Notes
Todays trading the ES_F was a roller coster. Although I was expecting the bias to be to the upside, I was not expecting a large magnitude move through the OR. The price action was tipped off by the ISM data that came in at 10 a.m. EST and the morning action was difficult to plan a trade around. (more…)
ES_F Fibonacci EMAs Trade
Id like to compare two charts of the ES_F from Monday’s trading 4/30/12. I trade small size in the ES_F and it is sometimes difficult to hold onto positions for long this way, there can be little to no scaling of profits outside of the gate prior to meeting projected targets. Having to trade small in the ES can/has lead to hindsight trading, as range days can turn to trend days, trend days can last “forever” and chop days chop you up. Hindsight bias diminishes your edge. There is no guarantee what happens today or in the last hour will repeat itself tomorrow or later in the day. (more…)
Emotional Data
I continue to work on correcting the mistakes that I make.
I like to take the contrarian trade and with that mindset I tend to be aggressive. Im sure that there may be other things that I am missing, but what I have come to realize immediately is that I tend to view too many indicators AFTER a trade is on. The focus that I gain prior to putting on a trade is lost after I have that trade on. (more…)
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