EXM- Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd

EXM announced a public stock offering and the stock took a big dip lower. Anytime a stock makes a big move up or down its a signal to research if a tradeable turning point is approaching.

The daily chart shows a MACD cross and daily low of 5.52 on July 8, 2009. If we consider the March low the beginning of a wave 1 and the June high its top, the July 8 low could have been the turn of wave 2 at a dollar less than a 62% retracement. But, what we want to determine is confirmation of this wave 2 completion.

The current chart is a little troubling showing that an ABC wave 2 retracement may not be complete yet. The 5.52 low being the A wave, the most recent correction being the top of B wave and the present trend being the C wave which has not yet tested this low or broken above the B wave high. A 62% correction from the July low to the August high would be 7.20. We hit this level with a hammer candlestick and low of 7.05 on August 12, 2009 .

If 7.05 holds the uptrend could continue into a powerful wave 3.

If 5.52 holds the wave 2 corrective wave could be a flat bottom correction which a new low is not made on the C wave.

Tagged on: ,