EXM- Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd

Excel Maritime reported good numbers this week and the stock seems to be learning how to trade sideways. A change from its normal downward trend.

EXM’s monthly MACD is close to crossing the signal line and the most recent low of 5.25 could have been the end of a C wave correction from the 11.70 trading level. More and more common in many stocks right now is the breakout of a triangle correction in the B wave of a wave 2 correction to the C wave low.

If this is the case for EXM the B wave triangle correction began at the 5.52 low, the end of the A wave. The triangle correction continued through its own five wave sequence represented by price levels “a” through “e”. In EXM’s case those levels may be interpreted as such; 9.95-a, 6.40-b, 7.89-c, 6.00-d, 7.45-e.

The highs and lows of these numbers are not contained exactly in the wedge of the triangle formation, but the most recent run lower past the A wave level of 5.52 to a 62% retracement level of 5.25 does create, so far, validity to the pattern of this correction being near completion.

An ideal entry point if a trade were to be put on would be the 5.68 price level, a 62% retracement from the 6.40 high off the most recent move. Today EXM traded to 5.75, look for it to test the 5.31 level as a sell stop. If it holds this level it may trade higher to the moving averages above in the 7.00 range.

Tagged on: elliott wave, EXM

daytrader

EXM has traded almost perfectly from the 5.25 trading level. Previously we looked to get in the trade at the 5.68 price level and the EXM traded off the 5.75 low to higher highs.

A wave 3 price target from the previous retracement would have been 7.82. The 7.00 price target we mentioned before was hit at 6.95 a 200 day moving average price level target. A 38% Fibonacci retracement would follow bring EXM to 6.42. Twelve cents from an exact retracement.

EXM continued to trade higher to 8.36. Surpassing the 7.82 target but only within a day of beginning the larger ABC retracement that EXM is now near the end of again.

There is a new trade in EXM to focus on. Since the 8.36 high the ABC correction has been following the expected moves of a wave 4 correction. First trading to a 38% retracement which would be about 7.17, we met this expectation and traded to 7.05. The B wave as explained in the earlier post can be calculated as 62% of the A wave magnitude. This calculation would come out to 7.86. EXM traded to 7.72 before beginning the C wave.

Because we can presume this is the wave 3 correction from the 5.25 low, a wave 4 most often trades to the 53% Fibonacci retracement level. This calculation would be 6.71. EXM has since traded to 6.78. It appears that most of the larger trading time frames have completed there 5 waves of wave C, yet the smallest time frames including the 1 minute, may still need to be resolved with a lower low.

This 53% level should be watched closely, and a position should be built in anticipation of EXM trading to 9.41, a wave 5 price target level. Once the wave 1 of this wave 5 can be determined a more exact price target could be reached.
daytrader

Today EXM traded close to a 62% Fibonacci retracement from its recent rise off the low of 6.66. A buy signal was issued today for the short term trading time frame- 5 minute trading time frame.

This is a tenuous market right now. Although the trend in EXM should rise after the recent correction subsides, todays double bottom low is as solid as the temperament of the market over the next few days. However, this low today does satisfy all technical requirements for a move higher in this time frame.

Build a position as anticipated in prior posts and anticipate a move higher in EXM. You can track the short term trading signal by following the trading alerts link for EXM.