Doug Kass wrote about how he is long GLD at yesterdays lows. He’s not always been bullish on gold, has debated with Schiff on gold as religion in the past and is making a well thought case that it may be time to ease back in. So far this morning he’s made a nice call as gold is higher. However, there is a new sect of this religion and I will rant on my order of it.
First, the Kass piece found here.
I can’t imagine listening to Kass’s own argument with Schiff once more would not convince anyone to NOT swing this trade for very long. I don’t think anything has changed. Schiff interview here, priceless.
Im not a fan of Schiffs debate on gold regardless of price. Schiffs best argument in the interview (paraphrased) “Well what would you think of gold if it made a new high?” Sure, what if…
Nothing screams religious fears like “what ifs”. Is this not a numbers game? How would Schiff feel at break even? Draw a trendline, take some profits or be cognitive that a “what if” moment could leave you a grandpa at the wrong end of a super-cycle move just as easily.
I am in agreement that gold is a religion but think its unwise to believe one has a steady grasp on measuring sentiment when dealing with ones “religion”. How high could gold have gone on positive sentiment? Pointless. How low could it go on negative sentiment? Pointless, its a religion. Is there a heaven too high and a hell too low? AAPL anyone?
If negative gets more negative don’t tell me there’s not room. But guess whats in charge- price. Not my silly opinions either.
Are we really going to talk about extended QE creating higher gold prices? Please reference QE3. End of story. Again price doesn’t lie. Don’t forget while looking at the chart, “what if” reality doesn’t change.
Societies distaste of fear is just warming up. America is kicking fears ass. GLD hit full stride during the housing crisis and QEs but residual fears and QE do NOT quantify a repeat of history. We trade to be profitable not to be right.
My rant is not to pretend to know anything. My “religion” is humble, its price not economic IQ. I can count to ten, multiply and divide…sometimes. Price defends my “religion” until price tells me otherwise.
Theres no argument against this trade and there’s no need to explain any of the following b.s. All that counts is risk reward and I can’t define others only my own.
There could be a great short term or long term call buying GLD here. It’s caught a trend line below falling 50, 100, and 200 weekly moving averages. Given the “what ifs” backing those technicals there is a chance something will happen.
In all seriousness, gold bobbing around down here is unsettling and thats why I’ve added a pissy tone to this post (not personal). But why should gold give anyone a great entry as it languishes here? It’s proved nothing of the past to be present.
I’ve done it again. Will I mark the bottom in gold?